While Swiss house prices rose 4.7 percent in the first quarter of 2026, Ticino moves in the opposite direction: between March 2025 and March 2026, single-family homes lost 1.9 percent and apartments 2.6 percent, reports moneymag.ch, based on asking prices. The cantonal average stands at 6,614 francs per square metre: in Lugano it climbs to 8,877 francs per square metre, in Locarno to 8,032, in Bellinzona to 6,376, while in Chiasso it already falls to 4,814.

The contrast with Lake Como sharpens the picture. According to Tecnocasa's research unit, Lake Como closed the second half of 2025 up 1.4 percent on average. In Como itself resale homes hold around 4,000 euros per square metre, rising to 6,000-7,000 euros on the lakefront; Varenna nears 5,000 euros, Mandello, Bellano and Lierna sit around 2,500 euros, while Perledo, the cheapest town in the area, stops at 1,200 euros per square metre.

At roughly 0.94 francs to the euro, Como's lakefront equals 5,600-6,600 francs per square metre: less than Lugano's average and in line with Bellinzona. Perledo, at about 1,130 francs, costs less than even the cheapest parts of Ticino, where prices rarely fall below 4,000 francs. For the budget of a studio in Lugano, buyers can still find a real house steps from the water across the border, analysts note, flagging registration taxes, an Italian notary and currency risk for Swiss residents.

Transaction prices hold steady

A different and more cautious picture comes from the Swiss Real Estate Institute's 2026 Home Market Price Analysis, which measures the prices of actually completed transactions: in 2025 the median price of a single-family home in Ticino held stable at 940,000 francs. After the 2.1 percent decline of the previous period, the stability is read as a positive signal for the canton's appeal, while nationally single-family home prices rose 1.6 percent in all six regions analysed.

The gap between districts remains wide: Lugano, Bellinzona and Locarno are the three most expensive districts, with median transaction prices between 1.0 and 1.08 million francs, while Blenio, Leventina and Riviera stop at 510,000 to 560,000 francs. Looking at per-square-metre prices for apartment living space over the past ten years, annual growth was lowest precisely in Lugano, at 0.7 percent, against a high of 5.1 percent in Zurich.

The distinction matters: asking prices photograph sellers' expectations, transaction prices what buyers actually paid. In Ticino expectations have cooled, but completed sales show no collapse yet.

This article was translated from the Italian edition of Lugano Tribune.